4 Business Ideas That Changed the World: Shareholder Value

4 Business Ideas That Changed the World: Shareholder Value

ADI IGNATIUS: Welcome to 4 Business Ideas That Changed the World, a special series of the HBR IdeaCast. The debate over how much control to give to shareholders has existed for as long as there have been any. The very first firm with publicly traded shares, the Dutch East India Company in the 17th century, pretty quickly fielded complaints from angry stock owners who felt that the company was being run counter to their wishes. And in the ensuing centuries, managers and owners would tussle endlessly over the questions of ownership and control.

Until the 1970s, that is, when the notion of shareholder primacy the idea that maximizing shareholder value takes legal and practical precedence above all else came to prominence. The person who arguably did the most to advance the idea was Michael Jensen, a professor at the University of Rochester Business School and later, a Harvard Business School professor with a coauthor he wrote in Harvard Business Review and elsewhere, he argued for, among other things, stock-based incentives that would neatly align CEO and shareholder interests, maximizing shareholder value became the mantra for every Fortune 500 CEO, achieve it or risk being pushed aside.

Critics have long charged that maximizing shareholder value ultimately just encourages CEOs and shareholders to feather their own nests at the expense of everything else, jobs, wages and benefits, communities, the environment. Now the past few years have seen a backlash against shareholder capitalism and the rise of so-called stakeholder capitalism.

So, in this special series from HBR IdeaCast, we’re exploring 4 Business Ideas That Changed the World. Each week, for four weeks, we’ll be talking to scholars and experts on the most influential ideas of HBR’s first 100 years. This week, it’s shareholder value. With me to discuss the issue are Lynn Paine and Mihir Desai, professors at Harvard Business School, and Carola Frydman, corporate historian at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. I’m Adi Ignatius, editor in chief of Harvard Business Review, and your host for this episode.

Carola, let me start with you, you’re the historian. Let’s say 100 years ago, this is at the time of HBR’s founding, you had a boom in business. There were more businesses, more managers. There were more shareholders. What kind of dynamic was forming then between a firm’s shareholders and its management?

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Well, let me take us a little bit further back to set the stage. So, if you were to drop in the 1850s, in the U.S. economy, what you would have found is every local town had firms producing almost everything, and the owner and the manager of those firms were one on the same. So, what changes, setting the stage up to the 1920s is that the economy gets bigger, and firms get much bigger. The rise of the railroad is a big transformation. And these larger firms need a lot of capital. So, one person just cannot provide all the financing that these firms need, and so we’re starting to see lots of shareholders start funding these firms. So, the structure of firms changes from having one owner be the manager, to having lots and lots of owners and having professional managers.

So, what emerges is what we would call a separation of ownership from control. That those that own the firms that are going to get the cash flows are no longer the same people making the day-to-day decisions for those firms. And that is essentially what’s happening in the 1920s. We see a big rise in the stock market, nothing like what we see today. So, I would say roughly by the late 1920s, probably about 15{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of households had one share or more. They actually have very limited rights, and they have very limited information about what the firms are doing. So, we started seeing the tension between shareholders and management emerge. All of this is setting the stage for what’s going to come a little bit later into the mid-20th century.

ADI IGNATIUS: Lynn, so what interests were companies serving then? Was there a philosophy back then as to how to prioritize these interests?

LYNN PAINE: Well, you know, it’s so interesting listening to Carola talk about the history of the rise of the big corporation. Even as early as the 1920s, there was already a growing debate about whose interests this corporation should serve. There was real concern about the power of these large concentrations of capital.

That showed up in print in the early 1930s in a really famous debate between Columbia Professor Adolf Berle and Harvard Law School Professor Merrick Dodd. Berle argued that managers were what he called the attorney for the shareholders. Dodd took the position that, no, managers are trustees, and they’re trustees of the corporate institution, and they have responsibilities to multiple constituencies. We didn’t have the word stakeholder back (laughs) then, of course. He named them constituencies, customers, employees, the shareholders, of course, and the general public.

But then in 1954, Professor Berle wrote a book called The 20th Century Capitalist Revolution, in which he said, the argument had actually been settled in favor of Professor Dodd. That is, that managers were trustees of the institution with multiple responsibilities. But an interesting caveat, he says that the debate has been settled, “at least for the time being.” And it wasn’t very long before that debate was opened up again.

ADI IGNATIUS: That’s really interesting. So, Mihir, you know, as business expands when stock ownership is spread so widely among people and entities, you know, what is happening to the notion of share ownership and the understanding of what power and authority that gives to the shareholders?

MIHIR DESAI: Yeah, I think exactly as Carola and Lynn described, you know, that diffusion of ownership has these great advantages. It enables scale, as Carola suggested. It also enables lots of risk sharing, because you no longer just own your firm and are subject to the whimsies of the firm, you own shares of lots of things. But the primary issue is the one that Carola identified, which is the separation of ownership and control. And that is really a deep problem, and it’s worth just underscoring here.

Which is, the debate now becomes about the degree to which that collective action problem needs to be solved. And by collective action problem, I mean, “Well, now we have diffuse owners. Who’s going to be watching the managers?” And that is the genesis of all this, is there, what we would call a corporate governance problem today now. Which is, how do I make sure that the people who I’ve appointed to do the work will do the work correctly?

And that kind of really becomes manifest, especially in the ’50s and ’60s, which, you know, as Lynn suggested, perhaps got settled, for some. The nature of economic activities started to change and we saw the rise of conglomerates. One of the reactions to the separation of ownership and control and the diffusion of ownership is, in some sense, the rise of managerial power.

And that becomes manifest in these larger entities, which are really remarkable by modern standards. You know, we’ve kind of forgotten about them, but things like ITT, and Gulf and Western, which used that diffusion of ownership to create little empires. ITT would kind of start in a base of telecommunications, but then diversify into Wonder Bread, and rental cars, and hotels. All because the underlying premise being that these managers knew what they were doing, and they had the ability to manage capital broadly for their shareholders, and their shareholders were sufficiently diffuse, to not really be able to stop them. So, that sets the stage for a reaction by people who become worried that shareholders are actually not being served.

ADI IGNATIUS: So, I want to get to that reaction in a second. But Carola, if I can bring you back. You know, there’s this sense, this idealized, maybe, idea that corporations existed, [that] they were more paternal than they would become later. That companies were essentially company towns, and that people thought about stakeholders, again, as Lynn said without using that word, more than they did kind of narrowly about shareholders. Is that even an accurate characterization of, let’s say, the period between you know the 1920s and the 1970s?

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Not fully. There are lots of forces that are changing over the period that put pressure on managers to behave in certain ways, even if their objective is to maximize value. For example, one of the changes that starts putting a lot of pressure on managers are unions, that not only grow larger but become more powerful in the ’30s and ’40s. For a variety of reasons, including, for example, the scarcity of labor during World War II.

And so, there are many firms that have unionized workforces at the time. There are also many firms that don’t. And what you see is in the firms that do not have unionized workforces, they start doing what it’s called, at the time, “welfare capitalism.” Building cities, for example, providing all kinds of benefits to the workforce. They’re not necessarily doing it because they think it’s the right thing to do from a moral standpoint. They’re doing it because by providing those benefits, those social benefits, they’re trying to preempt the workforce from getting unionized in the first place, which they see as a bigger constraint. It’s a larger cost.

When you read business histories of specific companies, the managers are very much mindful that maximizing profits, maximizing value is important. But given the constraints at the time, they need to make investments that, in this particular case, ended up raising wages, giving benefits to other stakeholders.

ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah. All right, well, so let’s fast forward to the 1970s. So, what was happening that set the stage for this, you know, blossoming idea of shareholder value maximization? Mihir, do you want to take the first crack at that?

MIHIR DESAI: Sure. So, you know, for starters, I think there was some disappointment with this notion of conglomerates. And then, of course, in the early 1970s, we have a set of economic shocks, oil shocks, and something that now has become current, again, which is inflation. And in the early 1970s, there were two to three years of very scarring stock returns. You know, 20{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} down after 25{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} down. And that I think, really forced people to ask questions about the degree to which were companies in their current form actually serving shareholders and were they generating enough wealth.

At that same time, the ability of pension plans to start to begin allocating capital forces people to say, “Well, wait a second, maybe we as shareholders, we want a different structure.” And in financial thinking, we have a set of ideas about why and how shareholders can diversify themselves. So, why should conglomerates be doing it for them? All of this, I think, gives the seed to, well, wait a second, maybe these things should be dismantled. And maybe we need to take power back from managers in a way that we had ceded during the past 30 to 40 years.

ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah, Lynn?

LYNN PAINE: Yeah, I’ll just jump in there.

ADI IGNATIUS: Please.

LYNN PAINE: Also adding to the story, a couple of other things, you know, we’re starting to see competition from Japan and Germany.

MIHIR DESAI: Right.

LYNN PAINE: And some disappointment with how U.S. companies are responding to that competition. And back in, I think it was 1971 or so when HBS professor Myles Mace published his very influential book, Directors: Myth and Reality. And what he uncovered was some very powerful managers and some very weak boards of directors, little more than rubber stamps for their managers. And then most of the managers were more focused, as Mihir has already pointed out, on building their empires, not serving their shareholders or any other stakeholder for that matter. So, things were pretty, pretty bad at the time.

You know, the other thing I’d add into the mix is, is that was also the era of the beginning of the corporate social responsibility movement.

MIHIR DESAI: Mm-hmm.

LYNN PAINE: And particularly, I don’t know if anybody remembers “Nader’s Raiders,” Ralph Nader, and Campaign GM. Where that was Ralph Nader and some Washington lawyers all trying to get GM to be more focused on auto safety, on pollution, on minority hiring. And I think there was just this sense that things were just kind of collapsing on all fronts. And just remember what the title of Milton Friedman’s article was, it was “The Social Responsibility Of Business Is to Increase Its Profits.” So, I don’t know Milton Friedman. I don’t know his thought processes. But my sense is that he was very worried that all of these other demands coming from society were going to make this ownership and control problem even worse.

ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah, and you’re talking about Milton Friedman’s famous piece in the New York Times that really kind of moved this debate along. So, here we are. So, this is a very dynamic time in American business and global business. Carola, maybe I’ll hand it to you. Can you talk about, then, you know, where these, these ideas, sort of shareholder-first ideas, where they come from and how they take root?

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Well, the ideas were always there in some shape or form. You can open Harvard Business Review articles in the ’30s or in the ’50s that are trying to emphasize how, ultimately, the shareholders and the owners, and what they want is they want to see returns. But those are some voices here and there. What happens with Milton Friedman’s article in the New York Times, and then with Jensen/Meckling’s paper and their articles in a little bit later in the ’70s is that these are very prominent figures. And they really catch fire. They articulate the problems really well. They make the, the problem, crystal clear.

And given all of the context at the time that Mihir and Lynn were describing so well, this gives a clear metric that firms should be maximizing as an objective. So, what’s very interesting is that these ideas become very influential and take hold very, very quickly. So, if you read random articles in the New York Times or in the Wall Street Journal not that long after in the 1980s, for example, it’s not a discussion on whether shareholders’ value maximization should be the objective. It’s a fact. Shareholders’ value maximization is the objective.

MIHIR DESAI: Yeah, and I’d just like to add one more piece of context, because Carola and Lynn already laid out a lot of it. But I, I think it’s also important to remember that politically in the 1980s, there is a resurgence of kind of classical economics. And Friedman and others are arguing, at a time when people are disillusioned with what had been a little bit of a leftward shift in thinking, that we needed to return. And, of course, Reagan is the embodiment of that. So, I don’t think we can abstract away from this background political context of a rightward shift in U.S. politics, and, of course, in the UK as well.

ADI IGNATIUS: Mihir, do you want to talk a little bit more about what, you know, Jensen and his coauthor were trying to fix and what their arguments were exactly?

MIHIR DESAI: Mike Jensen, and his coauthors, and, in particular, in their really remarkable article the Eclipse of the Public Corporation in HBR, really, threw a broadside against managers and against that notion of managerial power. What he does is quite interesting, he basically says, “Public corporations are dead. They are no longer a meaningful way to advance welfare.”

And of course, it’s a very hyperbolic statement. But what he’s getting at is the rise of private equity, the rise of leveraged buyouts, and the ability to say, “Well, wait a second, maybe diffuse ownership isn’t required. Maybe it just won’t be like that anymore.” And it’ll be better, because of exactly the issue that Carola began us on, which is incentive alignment.

It all becomes about incentive alignment, which is we need managers and owners to be back on the same page. And the only way to accomplish that, in this view, is to pay managers with stock, because that creates the incentive alignment. That is really, from their perspective, the core issue in modern capitalism, which is the separation of ownership and control. And again, this comes at a time where rightward shifts in politics, and disappointments with the economic growth of the ’70s serves as very fertile ground for seeding these ideas.

ADI IGNATIUS: Lynn, do you remember when you first heard of this concept and sort of what you thought about this?

LYNN PAINE: Oh, I remember it very well. It was the early 1980s, and I was at a conference. And I was chatting with a graduate student who was very excited about the thesis he was writing. And of course, I asked him to tell me about it, and he said he’s writing a thesis on this hot new idea called agency theory. As I listened to it, I was actually not particularly impressed! Because everything he said was so at odds with what I had learned in law school.

So, you know, for example, he was telling me that managers were the agents of the shareholders. Well, you know, an agent is kind of an order taker, whereas a fiduciary is somebody who’s supposed to exercise independent judgment. And here, judgment on whose behalf? The student was telling me it was on behalf of shareholders. And I had learned that, no, you’re fiduciary for the corporation and the shareholders, not just the shareholders. So, I didn’t think this theory was gonna go anyplace, and (laughs)-

MIHIR DESAI: (laughs)

LYNN PAINE: But I guess I turned out to be wrong.

ADI IGNATIUS: So far.

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Can I, can I briefly jump in?

ADI IGNATIUS: Yes.

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Because the insight that comes out of these papers is really quite simple, but powerful. Which is to say, once we have hired managers, professional managers, on their own, they’re not going to run the form to maximize the firm’s value. Because they’re going to respond to their own personal incentives—unless shareholders are designing the incentives of managers so that they are aligned with whatever the objective is. And that’s important. Because it’s saying, “Well, the manager on its own that’s gonna make the day-to-day decisions, left to her own devices, will think about her own personal benefits or her own preferences. As Jensen and Meckling said very nicely, agency costs are as real as other costs. And they do not disappear depending on what we put as the objective in the maximization function.

ADI IGNATIUS: So, that’s interesting. And I, I mean, it’s a fascinating argument. And you know, Friedman’s argument that look, businesses should just worry about making money, and—that wasn’t totally callous, you know—that other things will be taken care of if they do that. And then, you know, Jensen and Meckling, who, you know, are trying to solve the agency problem.

But what’s interesting to me is, you know, Lynn as a young scholar had problems with it, and yet, it settles into orthodoxy. And for decades, it’s not only like accepted practice, but you talk to CEOs they say, “Hey, I have no choice. The law requires me to maximize shareholder value, or I am abdicating my, you know, legal fiduciary responsibility.” So, more than a fad, it is thought to be the only possible approach that CEOs can responsibly take. How did that happen? And Lynn maybe, maybe I’ll ask you to, to start?

LYNN PAINE: Well, I think the point you make about simplicity is really important. Because the, the fundamental idea that it all starts with is the notion that shareholders own the corporation, even my two-year-old grandson, he knows what he is.

ADI IGNATIUS: (laughs)

MIHIR DESAI: (laughs)

LYNN PAINE: And so, this is a very simple idea. And agency’s a very simple idea. They are the principles, and they delegate authority to their agents to then manage the corporation. But the very premise that shareholders own the corporation, at least from a legal point of view, is very dubious. Shareholders own their shares, but they don’t own the corporation in any traditional sense of ownership.

What I’m really saying is, as a shareholder, you’re not a proprietor of the corporation. You’re not responsible for its debts, its misdeeds. You’re not accountable for any injuries that it imposes on third parties. I mean, I can be a shareholder of say, Apple, but I don’t get the keys to the premises. And I can’t go in and pick up a phone for myself whenever I need one. So, you do own your shares, but it’s a very different concept of ownership from the traditional concept.

MIHIR DESAI: Mm.

LYNN PAINE: But that theory starts with that fundamental premise. We have to also remember in the 1970s and 1980s, institutional shareholding was really picking up—particularly pension funds and government retirement funds—and looking for returns, as Mihir was saying earlier. So, this theory found a ready audience, an audience that said, “Ah, this can help us,” and there was a lot in it for the institutional investors and the fund managers.

MIHIR DESAI: Yeah.

LYNN PAINE: I mean, a good example is CalPERS, which was one of the early companies to get involved in corporate governance issues and shareholder activism in the 1980s. If you go back and look at their materials, you can see that they were pretty directly influenced by this theory. Some of their materials say, “We are owners, we’ve been asleep at the wheel, we need to wake up to that and start asserting our rights.” And institutional investors became a very powerful lobbying force. So, this whole thing is not just about an idea that people globbed onto. There was a movement. There was politics. There was lots of influence. And there was lots of money to be made from this idea by certain groups, and those groups promoted this idea.

MIHIR DESAI: Yeah. Lynn, I just want to pick up on this rise of institutional investors, because I think it’s so important, right? It’s not just pension funds, but it’s an entire change in the way that Americans view savings and the way their retirements get funded. So, if you go back to the ’60s, the GM pension plan, for example, was managed by GM. And then beginning in the early 1970s, they delegated to the nascent private equity firms and nascent venture capital firms that grow up to basically serve to manage assets on their behalf.

So, now you have an industry—the investment management industry—being born, that is crystallizing the idea that, well, our interests need to be served. And then, of course, you have the defined contribution revolution, again, through the late 1970s and early 1980s, that says, “Well, wait a second, the way we do retirement savings should be different, which is it shouldn’t be through firms. We should have portable benefits.” That change makes individuals think of themselves as investors in a way that they never thought of themselves before.

And of course, we have the rise of the mutual fund industry, which again, just explodes in the 1980s and 1970s. And of course, this industry, to Lynn’s point, has every reason to also propagate that idea. Because private equity becomes a major asset class. Venture capital becomes a major asset class. And so, there are a lot of self-interested folks doing lots of things to propagate the idea as well.

ADI IGNATIUS: Carola, how did all this affect executive compensation?

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Well, it’s really a transformative effect on executive compensation. The idea that stock and stock options could be used to align incentives to some extent is not novel. Firms had been using stock and actually stock options before the Great Depression. But all through the ’50s, ’60s, ’70s, the use is relatively minimal.

So, what happens is, Jensen has another really influential paper. In this case, with Kevin Murphy in 1990. That basically says that executives are being paid as bureaucrats. And what they mean by that is that most of their pay is relatively fixed, independent of firm performance. They estimate, essentially, that CEOs get about $3 for each $1,000 in value that they create for their firms. And so, the claim is they get a fixed wage, they have no incentives to work hard or do right by the shareholders.

So, what we see happen through the 1990s is a rapid rise in the levels of CEO pay. But more importantly, a big shift from salaries, relatively fixed bonuses, short-term bonuses, to a very large fraction of the compensation coming through stock options and restricted stock. It’s also aided by a tax reform in 1993, that essentially makes a tax disadvantage for firms to pay executives in relatively fixed forms of pay that are not tied to the performance of firms.

CAROLA FRYDMAN: What we do really see is that the 1990s are the period of the most rapid rise in executive compensation amongst the largest firms, whether we’re looking at averages or medians. And it’s been a lot more stable since, actually. There hasn’t been quite such a sharp increase—some ups and downs, but not the same level of increase—since the early 2000s.

ADI IGNATIUS: So yeah, that 1990 article you mentioned was in HBR: “CEO Incentives—It’s Not How Much You Pay, But How.” Carola, I’m interested, to what extent has this idea of shareholder value maximization actually influenced corporate systems in countries besides the U.S.?

CAROLA FRYDMAN: I think it’s interesting, my perspective is that actually in the last 20, 30 years, we’ve seen a convergence on both sides. Surveys to managers in the early 1990s reflected stark differences in what the objective was across the world. Managers in the U.S., but also the UK or Canada, primarily responded that the one and only objective was shareholders’ value maximization.

Managers in Germany, Japan, for example, were a lot more likely to prioritize stakeholders’ value maximization. And that’s because historically, the governance of firms in Germany and Japan has been very different. There is labor representation mandated in the boards of German corporations.

But what we’ve seen over time is that the significance of shareholders’ value maximization has also influenced other countries. One case in which we see it very clearly is with executive compensation, where the use of equity-based pay was largely non-existent in other countries. And that has changed tremendously as they became aware of the extent to which it was used in the U.S.

ADI IGNATIUS: I mean, this is surely the, the beginning, I guess, of the, the debate over income disparity.

MIHIR DESAI: Yeah.

ADI IGNATIUS: I mean, Peter Drucker’s idea that, you know, the, top earner should not make more than 20 times what, you know, an average-salaried worker makes, obviously seems quaint after this explosion of executive compensation. Coming up after the break, we’re going explore the backlash to shareholder value maximization. Is there a better way? Stay with us.

Welcome back to 4 Business Ideas That Changed the World: shareholder value. I’m Adi Ignatius. So, the idea of shareholder maximization takes hold, it really was an era that lasted for a long time. Mihir, would you be willing to sort of then look at the positives and negatives of this 50 years that we really subscribe to this theory?

MIHIR DESAI: Sure. And I think, you know, my approach to this question is to perhaps quote Churchill.

LYNN PAINE: (laughs)

MIHIR DESAI: Which is, you know, it’s a terrible form of capitalism, but for all the others.

CAROLA FRYDMAN: (laughs)

MIHIR DESAI: You know, which is what Churchill said about democracy. Which is to say there are many problematic aspects to it. You alluded to one, a pretty dramatic rise in income inequality as the ratio of compensation at the top end of the distribution goes to several hundred of those at the bottom of the distribution. I think there was an obliviousness to the central disaster of our time, which is, of course the environmental disaster, and that could have been fostered by this exclusive focus on one metric.

Having said all that, I struggle with what people have been suggesting as alternatives. And you’ll remember Adi, and I’m sure it was in the pages of HBR, which is, “Well, the right way to do this is the Japanese way, you know, we need keiretsu’s, you know, that’s gonna be the solution.” Well, that hasn’t turned out terribly well. The German model turns out to be considerably more idiosyncratic than I think other many people would think of it as. For a while it was, “No, state capitalism as pioneered in China is gonna be the way to do this. That’s going to be the winner.” So, I think these other examples are complicated.

Now, there is concern about income inequality at the national level. But of course, these last three or four decades have seen a remarkable reduction in global income inequality. And I think that’s quite positive. And really remarkable technological accomplishments that have been pioneered by these high-powered incentives. Including in technology that we, you know, laud in venture capital. Which, of course, is predicated on this very idea of incentive alignment that Carola outlined.

So, I think there are many problems. But I don’t think we should, you know, sell short the idea of what it has accomplished for us. And, in particular, in comparison to what alternative models that were heralded during those last 50 years have not delivered.

ADI IGNATIUS: So, that seems fair, but we’re obviously in a moment now where a lot of people are dissatisfied with the shareholder first, the shareholder primacy model. Some of the biggest criticisms of maximizing shareholder value are well-known, but I think it’s worth ticking them off here.

So, I mean, here are a few: short-termism. You know, the sense that CEOs are leading companies to the benefit of the quarterly earnings report, rather than the long-term health of the company. With everything that implies layoffs, reductions in R&D spending, and so on.

Value transfer, as opposed to value creation. That hedge funds, for example, will buy shares, will gain an active role on a board, and then prompt moves to move earnings forward, and then they sell. They’re also not there for long-term growth. So these are some of the most common complaints. But Lynn, you know, what are some other negative and positive impacts that the practice of this idea has had?

LYNN PAINE: That era did bring in more discipline of a certain sort and running the firm or focus on efficiency and more accountability of a certain type. I mean, when I think about the boards that Myles Mace described back in the 1970s, this whole movement certainly woke up a lot of sleeping boards. and they became much more active. So, there were some, definitely some positives to talk about here.

But when you think about maximizing value for shareholders in the U.S. context, you’re really talking about maximizing value for the wealthiest Americans. 90{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of U.S. public company equities are held by the wealthiest 10{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of Americans. Most Americans get their income, their wealth, from their jobs, from their wages.

ADI IGNATIUS: Mm-hmm.

LYNN PAINE: And if we look at what’s happened to wages in the U.S., and Mihir made the point about global, which I think is also very important. But in the U.S., there’s been very stagnant wages for lower-wage workers and middle-wage workers. Shareholders have done wonderfully over this period. I do feel this problem of income inequality and the kind of divisive times that we live in—it’s going to be hard for us to rebuild the fabric of society unless we think of a better way to share the benefits of this wonderful system that we have.

ADI IGNATIUS: Lynn, how would you define stakeholder capitalism, and you know, where’s this push coming from?

LYNN PAINE: So, we’ve already referred to this as this idea that a company, a corporation should be run for the benefit of all of its stakeholders, and not just for shareholder returns. That’s kind of the core idea. And from a practical point of view, most companies define their core stakeholders as their core constituencies: their employees, their customers, their shareholders, their suppliers, their partners, communities, and the public at large. That’s sort of the set of stakeholders.

The word first appeared in the 1960s, but it was in the mid-1980s, when Professor Ed Freeman, who’s now a professor at the Darden School, wrote his book, Strategic Management: A Stakeholder Approach, that it really kind of put the idea on the map. It really came into the popular imagination over the last decade.

All this is really being driven by an appreciation and awareness of some of these large social and economic problems that we have and the huge environmental crisis that we have. And an understanding that if we just keep on with sort of business as usual—shareholder value maximization—it’s not going to help solve these problems. In fact, it’s probably going to make them worse.

And some of the proponents are—they’re not anti-capitalist—they are experienced business leaders. They are investors. And they’re young people too, looking for how are we going to cope with this world that we’re inheriting? There’s a lot to work out about it. I mean, I don’t think it’s nearly as well-grounded or as well-thought-through as shareholder value maximization.

ADI IGNATIUS: It lacks that simplicity, yeah.

LYNN PAINE: Yeah, it lacks a simplicity. But it also kind of lacks the whole theoretical foundation that’s there. And from a practitioner point of view, I think there’s a lot of confusion, actually, about what it means in practice.

ADI IGNATIUS: I guess one question I have is, whether the shift is real? You know, CEO incentives, I think still tend to be stock-based and, you know, aligned in the same way, as they always were. Active investors are still out there. Carola, the rhetoric has certainly changed. You can’t go to Davos and not talk about stakeholder capitalism, you’ll get booed out of the room. But in practice, are we seeing a change?

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Well, the age comment that Lynn made, I think partly what’s behind this is the younger generation of employees, consumers, and also investors have different preferences. They’re putting more emphasis on climate impact, for example, than the older generation had. And so, in part firms are responding to these concerns, because that’s going to be what’s best for shareholders too.

And in part, because that, as we said before, institutional investors have different preferences. And they express their preferences about environmental and various governance issues in a different way than they did in the past. So, my view [is that] executives are seeing they have to respond to it, because otherwise that’s going to be bad for their firms.

What the impact that’s going to have in practice, I think it’s a little bit early to tell.

MIHIR DESAI: Mm-hmm.

CAROLA FRYDMAN: And it has a, for me, a very big question mark. As Lynn said, shareholders’ value maximization is one very clear metric. It’s easy to quantify and understand. When we think about ESG, or corporate social responsibility, they’re not as easy to measure in a consistent way or we don’t know what the correct measure is. There are lots of different components. Not all of them matter equally. And also, when we think about the diversity of investors of firms, they don’t all have the same preferences.

MIHIR DESAI: Yeah.

CAROLA FRYDMAN: Even if executives are trying to maximize stakeholder value, what does that mean in practice? How do they elicit and weigh the different preferences of all of these stakeholders, and how does that translate into action? And the worry that I have is that it really in a way—that lack of clarity—opens up the room for the agency problem to resurface.

MIHIR DESAI: Mm-hmm. I think that’s super interesting Carola. And it’s real. I think it’s totally real, Adi. Which is compensation is now being linked to ESG metrics. People are thinking hard about it in important ways. I think it’s absolutely real.

My concern is that it’ll, per Carola’s comments, give rise to more agency problems. I mean, I’m reminded of the WeWork filing documents where Adam Neumann said he was going to be saving the world with his company, but was in fact, you know, lining his pockets.

And then the reason I’m really concerned, to go to Lynn’s comments, is that I think it’s a displacement of what are fundamentally political dissatisfactions and political ambitions that are better mediated in the political sphere than in the commercial sphere. You know, if we want to fix the world’s problems—which I do want to—you know, the vehicle for doing that is the political domain. Which may, by the way, include restricting companies from doing things. Somehow we’ve convinced ourselves that the right way to approach this problem—the global problems we face—is to give corporations more latitude to do the things that they think are right. And that seems kind of problematic, and maybe anti-democratic. So, I think it’s a totally real movement. It has enormous potential. But I think there are some real issues about it as well.

ADI IGNATIUS: So, it’s just… it’s a funny period, where we’re looking to companies, we’re looking to CEOs to solve social problems, for better or worse. But I’d love before we’re done to have each of you talk a little bit about, so where are we headed? I mean, I don’t want to say 100 years now, because that’s nonsense. But, you know, if the last 50 years was a sort of Milton Friedman-esque, Reagan-esque, whatever you want to call it, shareholder first, with all the positives and negatives that come from that. Where are we headed? What’s the phase that we’re entering now? Lynn do you want to–

LYNN PAINE: I just feel that we are in a period of experimentation right now. The old paradigm has broken down in various ways. And we don’t have a, you know, a turnkey new one all ready to put in place. And I’m actually kind of encouraged by all of these experiments. That’s kind of the natural process of working through when this old paradigm has broken down, and we’re looking for a new one.

I’m encouraged that some of the advocates and proponents of a shareholder-focused model are rethinking, what is shareholder value? We can find problems with all of these things. But I think it’s good that we’re having this conversation and that there are all of these competing ideas out there, and that we should be working on them.

So, I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know what it’s going to look like in 30 or 40 years. But honestly, I don’t think anybody on any side of the debate really wants to go back to the old days, when companies were dumping their pollution into the community water supply in the name of maximizing shareholder value.

ADI IGNATIUS: Mihir?

MIHIR DESAI: I certainly think that’s right. I agree with everything that Lynn said. In fact that we are in this very transitional period, and it’s very exciting, and it’s great to see people coming up with different ideas.

I would be cautious to discount the power of shareholder value maximization as an ongoing bedrock of what we do. In part because of its, I think, some genuine successes. I think it’s really about curbing the excesses of the shareholder value model more than it is about supplanting it with some different notion. Perhaps with legislation. Perhaps with a reinvigorated sense of what the state would do. I think that is the most fruitful way forward.

I don’t know exactly what will happen. But I would not discount that the bedrock will continue to be some form of what we have come to know as shareholder value maximization. But hopefully with more effective curbs on egregious behavior. Hopefully with a more powerful state to counter the force of corporations. I think that would be a good place to end up.

ADI IGNATIUS: And Carola?

CAROLA FRYDMAN: I completely agree with Mihir. What I don’t think is going to happen is, I think we understand the corporate form thankfully is not dead. And the reason for that is that yes, the separation of ownership and control has the agency problem. But we know about it. And we can try to figure out how to address it, not perfectly in some ways.

But the advantage again goes back to what Mihir said before, is the fact that we can diversify risk. And that means firms can take on bigger projects, riskier projects, innovate. And that’s a huge engine for growth.

Now, exactly what we maximize and how we address these problems, I think that’s where we see this constant evolution. With executive compensation, there has been a lot of back and forth. It’s a little bit of a pendulum that slowly moves towards progress. And I think that’s part of what we’re seeing now. It’s going back to take into account the preferences and values of other stakeholders.

But I don’t think that’s going to fully supplant the shareholders’ value as one of the key things that corporations are going to maximize. But it’s a very interesting moment, given what history has taught us. We don’t always get it right. And, in fact, we learn over time, and we try something. It doesn’t work perfectly, we try to fix it. We move one step at a time.

ADI IGNATIUS: I’ve been speaking with Lynn Paine and Mihir Desai of Harvard Business School and Carola Frydman of the Kellogg School of Management.

Next up in our special series 4 Business Ideas That Changed the World will be emotional intelligence. HBR executive editor Alison Beard will talk with three experts about how to identify and manage one’s own emotions, as well as the emotions of others. That is next Thursday right here in the HBR IdeaCast feed after our regular Tuesday episode.

This episode was produced by Curt Nickisch. We get technical help from Rob Eckhardt. Our audio product manager is Ian Fox, and Hannah Bates is our audio production assistant. Special thanks to Maureen Hoch for her help on this project.

Thank you for listening to 4 Business Ideas That Changed the World, a special series of the HBR IdeaCast. I’m Adi Ignatius.

IMF, Bangladesh reach preliminary deal for $4.5bn loan | Business and Economy News

IMF, Bangladesh reach preliminary deal for $4.5bn loan | Business and Economy News

Soaring power and food stuff prices, sparked by the Russia-Ukraine war, and shrinking forex reserves have hit Bangladesh.

The Intercontinental Financial Fund (IMF) has provisionally agreed to deliver a $4.5bn aid programme to Bangladesh, with the country’s finance minister saying the deal would support protect against financial instability escalating into a disaster.

Bangladesh’s $416bn economic system has been one particular of the world’s fastest expanding for a long time. But climbing electricity and food items charges, sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, alongside with shrinking overseas trade reserves, have swelled its import bill and recent account deficit.

On Wednesday, it grew to become the third South Asian nation to protected a “staff-amount agreement” with the IMF for financial loans this 12 months immediately after Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

“The warmth of the global economic climate has afflicted our financial system to some extent,” Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal informed reporters soon after the IMF announcement. “We asked for the IMF loan as a precautionary measure to make certain that this instability does not escalate into a crisis.”

“Bangladesh’s strong financial recovery from the pandemic has been interrupted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, foremost to a sharp widening of the existing account deficit, a fast decline of international trade reserves, rising inflation and slowing progress,” mentioned Rahul Anand, who led a browsing IMF staff members mission.

The group arrived in Bangladesh late past thirty day period to iron out provisions for supplying the personal loan to the South Asian nation of much more than 160 million men and women.

IMF stated a “staff-amount agreement” had been attained for a 42-thirty day period arrangement, including about $3.2bn from its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF), furthermore about $1.3bn from its new Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

“The targets of Bangladesh’s new Fund-supported software are to maintain macroeconomic steadiness and support powerful, inclusive, and inexperienced development, even though guarding the vulnerable,” the financial institution said in a assertion.

A team-amount arrangement is normally issue to acceptance by IMF management and thing to consider by its executive board, which is anticipated in the coming months.

Bracing for a slowdown

Bangladesh’s financial mainstay is the export-oriented garment market, which is bracing for a slowdown as massive consumers like Walmart are saddled with excessive shares as inflation forces persons to prioritise their paying out.

The country’s international exchange reserves had dwindled to $35.74bn by November 2 from $46.49bn a 12 months in the past, central lender data showed.

The IMF claimed Bangladesh has set alongside one another a programme to foster advancement that involves steps to include inflation and reinforce the economical sector.

Finance Minister Kamal reported the IMF workforce agreed with the government’s economic reforms. Previously, in August, Bangladesh hiked fuel rates by about 50 {ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} in a shift to trim its subsidy load, but federal government officials denied at the time that this was a prerequisite for the IMF mortgage.

Resources will be disbursed in 7 tranches, Kamal said, including that the to start with instalment will be available in February 2023.

Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg’s letter

Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg’s letter

Meta is laying off 13{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of its personnel, or more than 11,000 personnel, CEO Mark Zuckerberg claimed in a letter to staff Wednesday.

“Today I am sharing some of the most hard improvements we have built in Meta’s heritage,” Zuckerberg reported in the letter. “I’ve decided to cut down the dimension of our workforce by about 13{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} and allow more than 11,000 of our gifted employees go. We are also getting a range of additional steps to come to be a leaner and far more successful business by cutting discretionary expending and extending our choosing freeze via Q1.”

Shares of Meta have been up about 7.7{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} Wednesday early morning.

The layoffs arrive amid a rough time for Facebook guardian firm Meta, which presented lukewarm steerage in late Oct for its future fourth-quarter earnings that spooked traders and induced its shares to sink practically 20{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}.

Traders have been concerned about Meta’s increasing charges and charges, which jumped 19{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} 12 months in excess of 12 months in the 3rd quarter to $22.1 billion. The company’s in general sales declined 4{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} to $27.71 billion in the quarter when its operating profits dropped 46{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} from the former year to $5.66 billion.

“I want to choose accountability for these conclusions and for how we acquired in this article. I know this is tough for everybody, and I’m specially sorry to these impacted.” Zuckerberg reported.

He stated Meta is making reductions in every single corporation but that recruiting will be disproportionately influenced because the company programs to employ much less people today in 2023. The organization prolonged its hiring freeze through the initial quarter with a couple of exceptions, Zuckerberg claimed.

“This is a unfortunate moment, and there’s no way all-around that. To those people who are leaving, I want to thank you once more for all the things you’ve got place into this area,” he included.

Impacted staff will receive 16 weeks of shell out as well as two additional months for every single year of services, Zuckerberg explained. Meta will include wellbeing insurance for six months.

Meta is closely investing in the metaverse, which frequently refers to a yet-to-be created digital entire world that can be accessed by virtual actuality and augmented actuality headsets. This hefty wager has charge Meta $9.4 billion so significantly in 2022, and the company anticipates that losses “will grow noticeably yr-more than-12 months.”

Zuckerberg explained through a contact with analysts as portion of its third-quarter earnings report that Meta options to “target our investments on a tiny amount of large precedence development regions” for the duration of the upcoming 12 months.

“That means some groups will improve meaningfully, but most other groups will continue to be flat or shrink more than the next yr,” Zuckerberg reported. “In aggregate, we hope to conclusion 2023 as both around the similar size, or even a slightly smaller sized group than we are currently.”

Meta counts far more than 87,000 personnel as of the stop of September.

Here is Mark Zuckerberg’s letter to staff members:

“These days I’m sharing some of the most hard improvements we’ve manufactured in Meta’s background. I have resolved to decrease the sizing of our staff by about 13{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} and permit additional than 11,000 of our gifted workforce go. We are also getting a variety of supplemental methods to turn out to be a leaner and far more effective organization by chopping discretionary investing and extending our hiring freeze by way of Q1.

I want to take accountability for these conclusions and for how we obtained here. I know this is tough for everybody, and I am especially sorry to all those impacted.

How did we get in this article?

At the begin of Covid, the globe speedily moved on the web and the surge of e-commerce led to outsized income advancement. Quite a few people today predicted this would be a everlasting acceleration that would go on even immediately after the pandemic ended. I did too, so I made the selection to noticeably boost our investments. Sadly, this did not perform out the way I anticipated. Not only has on-line commerce returned to prior developments, but the macroeconomic downturn, enhanced levels of competition, and advertisements signal decline have prompted our income to be a great deal decreased than I would expected. I got this incorrect, and I choose accountability for that.

In this new ecosystem, we need to turn into additional capital economical. We’ve shifted far more of our resources onto a smaller range of superior precedence progress spots — like our AI discovery motor, our ads and company platforms, and our lengthy-time period vision for the metaverse. We have slash fees across our business, including scaling back budgets, decreasing benefits, and shrinking our actual estate footprint. We are restructuring groups to increase our efficiency. But these measures by yourself will not likely convey our charges in line with our revenue expansion, so I have also made the challenging determination to let people today go.

How will this work?

There is no very good way to do a layoff, but we hope to get all the applicable information and facts to you as swiftly as possible and then do no matter what we can to guidance you by means of this.

All people will get an email before long allowing you know what this layoff means for you. Just after that, every single afflicted personnel will have the option to converse with another person to get their queries answered and join info periods.

Some of the details in the US consist of:

  • Severance. We will pay back 16 months of foundation pay back in addition two extra months for every year of company, with no cap.
  • PTO. We are going to pay for all remaining PTO time.
  • RSU vesting. Absolutely everyone impacted will acquire their November 15, 2022 vesting.
  • Well being insurance policy. We are going to protect the expense of healthcare for people today and their family members for 6 months.
  • Occupation providers. We’ll supply three months of occupation aid with an exterior vendor, together with early access to unpublished position prospects.
  • Immigration assist. I know this is particularly difficult if you might be in this article on a visa. You can find a discover period of time right before termination and some visa grace periods, which signifies absolutely everyone will have time to make options and work through their immigration position. We have devoted immigration specialists to support guide you primarily based on what you and your loved ones want. 

Outside the US, guidance will be very similar, and we will adhere to up before long with individual procedures that just take into account regional work regulations.

We created the decision to take out accessibility to most Meta systems for folks leaving right now provided the amount of money of entry to sensitive data. But we are preserving e-mail addresses active through the day so everyone can say farewell.

Whilst we are creating reductions in every business across the two Spouse and children of Applications and Truth Labs, some groups will be influenced far more than some others. Recruiting will be disproportionately influenced since we are setting up to seek the services of much less people next year. We’re also restructuring our company teams more considerably. This is not a reflection of the good get the job done these teams have completed, but what we want likely forward. The leaders of just about every group will agenda time to talk about what this usually means for your crew around the future couple of times.

The teammates who will be leaving us are talented and passionate, and have designed an vital impact on our enterprise and local community. Each individual of you have served make Meta a accomplishment, and I am grateful for it. I’m confident you are going to go on to do fantastic perform at other locations.

What other alterations are we producing?

I check out layoffs as a past vacation resort, so we made a decision to rein in other resources of charge prior to permitting teammates go. Over-all, this will insert up to a meaningful cultural change in how we function. For example, as we shrink our actual estate footprint, we are transitioning to desk sharing for people who now invest most of their time outside the office environment. We’ll roll out a lot more charge-slicing alterations like this in the coming months. 

We’re also extending our employing freeze through Q1 with a smaller amount of exceptions. I am likely to look at our company effectiveness, operational performance, and other macroeconomic factors to decide no matter whether and how considerably we should really resume choosing at that position. This will give us the capability to command our price tag construction in the function of a ongoing financial downturn. It will also place us on a path to obtain a extra efficient cost structure than we outlined to traders not too long ago.

I am now in the middle of a comprehensive review of our infrastructure paying out. As we create our AI infrastructure, we’re centered on turning out to be even far more effective with our potential. Our infrastructure will go on to be an crucial edge for Meta, and I feel we can realize this although paying out much less.

Fundamentally, we are creating all these modifications for two explanations: our income outlook is reduced than we envisioned at the starting of this calendar year, and we want to make guaranteed we are running competently throughout both of those Family members of Applications and Fact Labs. 

How do we shift ahead?

This is a unfortunate moment, and there is no way all-around that. To all those who are leaving, I want to thank you once more for all the things you have set into this position. We would not be the place we are these days with out your tricky get the job done, and I am grateful for your contributions.

To these who are remaining, I know this is a complicated time for you as well. Not only are we saying goodbye to people we have worked intently with, but lots of of you also feel uncertainty about the long run. I want you to know that we are creating these decisions to make sure our future is strong.

I think we are deeply underestimated as a business right now. Billions of folks use our solutions to connect, and our communities preserve developing. Our core small business is between the most rewarding ever built with substantial opportunity ahead. And we are top in creating the know-how to outline the long run of social connection and the future computing platform. We do historically significant function. I am self-assured that if we work competently, we are going to arrive out of this downturn more robust and extra resilient than at any time.

We’ll share much more on how we are going to operate as a streamlined corporation to accomplish our priorities in the weeks forward. For now, I am going to say a single more time how grateful I am to these of you who are leaving for everything you’ve accomplished to advance our mission.

Mark”

Enjoy: Meta has to go back to their core advertising company and double down.

Three Tips For Marketing Your Business During A Recession

Three Tips For Marketing Your Business During A Recession

Akram Atallah is CEO of Id Electronic, a world wide chief in following-generation top-degree domains and digital identification.

With rates increasing and the financial state shrinking, numerous organization entrepreneurs are rightfully involved about what lies ahead in the coming months. Some professionals are predicting a recession, although others stage to the reduced unemployment price as a rationale there is nothing at all to get worried about. Both way, the future is uncertain, and it’s finest to be organized for any likely economic turbulence.

When recessions do occur, marketing and advertising budgets are typically the 1st to get cut. Nevertheless, scientific studies display that businesses with the best extended-time period effectiveness really do not cut advertising and marketing spending and relatively reallocate their budgets. Of system, not every marketing and advertising manager has the final say on spending plan, and when an edict arrives from the top rated, you may perhaps have to make do with fewer. But by continuing to current market your manufacturer, you’ll raise the likelihood that you’re best-of-head for buyers when they’re completely ready to invest additional in the future—and perhaps even see a lot quicker growth than your competition as we arise from the downturn.

No matter whether you’re working with a smaller sized budget or just wanting to adjust your internet marketing approach, here are three guidelines for advertising and marketing your business for the duration of a economic downturn, from expanding your on line written content to escalating your share of voice with a descriptive area.

Suggestion 1: Meet up with your clients where by they’re at.

Recessions are hard on absolutely everyone. Although your base line may be shrinking, customers’ wallets will be, as well, and demonstrating sympathy for the problems they are enduring can go a extended way to earning prolonged-term have faith in and favorability.

Dell established a shining example of this through the 2008 recession, as Harvard Organization Evaluation described, with an marketing campaign that showcased messaging like “Depend on Dell for easy options in tough times” and “Out of the box, in your means.” Even though your advertising and marketing doesn’t have to be really so pointed, merely contacting focus to the price savings or fantastic price you offer can go a prolonged way in resonating with shoppers in the existing moment.

Content material internet marketing is a different quick and very affordable way to arrive at your viewers. Manufacturing web site posts or ebooks that contact on subjects that feel relevant to shoppers and convey them price will assist earn their loyalty. You can respond to widespread concerns connected to your product or products and services, or contact on newsworthy matters.

For illustration, buildable.households, a firm that allows men and women realize their aspiration houses, posts articles in their information centre about the residence-building approach in Southern California, simultaneously endorsing what they offer you and providing buyers with practical information and facts. By focusing on how you can assistance your consumers rather than how they can support you will make them experience valued and boost the odds they construct a extended-expression marriage with your manufacturer.

Idea 2: Strengthen your brand title.

Are your competitors rolling back their advertising initiatives? If other firms in your market are staying silent for the duration of the recession, now is the time to claim the limelight. By continuing to get your title out there, you can keep major of thoughts and keep on being the go-to decision when expending returns to standard. As well as, doing so doesn’t have to be pricey.

Try rolling out a descriptive area that matches your brand. By leveraging the house right before and following the dot—like momentus.area or nothing.tech—you can push model recognition. Like articles advertising, updating your area name is cost-effective on any advertising spending plan and is another boon for your Website positioning. When men and women lookup for a solution or assistance in their region, domain names that include things like these keyword phrases much better place your area to increase to the best of search rankings.

In the age of lookup engines, when you occupy crucial actual estate on the results web page, men and women will be more keyed into your brand name and take into consideration you the qualified in your area. And the extra focus you get in the electronic world, the higher your share of voice—or larger the number of individuals who are informed of your brand when compared to your opponents. This can aid you emerge as a leader in the long run.

Idea 3: Enjoy the very long recreation.

Customers usually think weak financial circumstances will final permanently. Whilst history has demonstrated us which is considerably from legitimate, not every thing returns to the way it was right before a economic downturn. As the pandemic continues to show us, macroeconomic adjustments can significantly impact the conduct of person buyers for months and even yrs to appear.

The most effective way to gauge how shelling out habits are altering is to collect info. By monitoring what and how significantly men and women are paying out with your organization now and after the economic climate picks up, you can decide which adjustments are small-term and which kinds are right here to continue to be. For enterprises making updates to their offerings, this is unbelievably beneficial info that can enable you continue to be relevant throughout poor times and excellent periods.


Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only neighborhood for world-course CIOs, CTOs and know-how executives. Do I qualify?


Auto loan delinquencies rise as loan-accommodation programs end

Auto loan delinquencies rise as loan-accommodation programs end

Few show concerns about auto loan delinquencies amid strong job market

With inflation cutting into the budgets of Americans, a expanding proportion of persons with car loans are struggling to make their every month payments.

TransUnion, which tracks much more than 81 million automobile loans in the U.S., mentioned Tuesday the proportion of loans that are at the very least 60 days delinquent hit 1.65{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} in the 3rd quarter, the highest charge for 60-working day delinquencies in a lot more than a 10 years

“People continue to want to continue to be present-day as most effective that they can. It really is just this inflationary surroundings is earning it tough,” Satyan Service provider, senior vice president of TransUnion, advised CNBC. “It leaves fewer dollars in their pocket to make the vehicle bank loan payment, mainly because they have received to pay back additional for eggs and milk and other things.”

The biggest effects is becoming felt among the among the subprime borrowers who have lower credit scores and usually have decreased revenue.

In September, the average transaction selling price for a new vehicle was $47,138, up virtually $2,600 as opposed with the yr-before period, according to the car exploration agency Edmunds. The ordinary cost paid for a utilised vehicle was $30,566, a jump of just about $2,500 from September 2021.

The rise in delinquencies also follows the conclude of bank loan-lodging plans set up for the duration of the pandemic. Those people applications were made to support people who might have misplaced their task to prevent owning a motor vehicle repossessed mainly because they couldn’t make the regular monthly payment. 

“There has been this outcome wherever the delinquency that may have transpired in excess of the past handful of several years is seriously just pushed out or delayed because that customer didn’t have to make payments or their position was on an lodging. So now some of those people are hitting,” Service provider reported. 

TransUnion said roughly 200,000 automobile loans that earlier took edge of the pandemic-era lodging are now listed as 60 days delinquent. About 100,000 accounts that are far more than 60 days delinquent continue to be in lodging programs, the credit history company claimed.

Despite the increase in delinquencies, Merchant believes the car loan current market stays nutritious. The average desire amount for a new-car or truck bank loan climbed to 5.2{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} in the third quarter, even though the ordinary level for a utilised automobile bank loan hit 9.7{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, according to TransUnion. Each are up more than just one percentage point in comparison with the year-earlier interval.

People greater fascination costs are pressuring several customers to stretch out the conditions of their financial loans to at least seven years, Service provider mentioned. Continue to, delinquency charges have been stored to some degree in examine by reduced unemployment.

“If we get into a position in which work begins to be a obstacle in the United States and unemployment improves, that is when the field will actually start off to be anxious about a consumer’s skill to shell out their vehicle financial loans,” he mentioned.

— CNBC’s Meghan Reeder contributed to this report.

Newtek Business Services Corp. (NEWT) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Newtek Business Services Corp. (NEWT) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Newtek Business Services Corp. (NASDAQ:NEWT) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call November 8, 2022 8:30 AM ET

Company Participants

Barry Sloane – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Nicholas Leger – Executive Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer

John McCaffery – SVP of Accounting and Finance

Conference Call Participants

Jim Collins – Excelsior Capital Partners

Paul Johnson – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Newtek Business Services Corp. Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, President and CEO and Founder, Barry Sloane.

Barry Sloane

Good morning, everyone, and appreciate you all attending our third quarter 2022 financial results conference call. First, I’d like to welcome John McCaffery to the call. Today. John, is our SVP of Accounting and Finance and John was hired with our intent that subject to regulatory approval, John will become the Chief Financial Officer of Newtek Bank. In addition to John being on the call today is Nicholas Leger. Nick is Chief accounting Officer of our publicly traded company Newtek Business Service Corp. and he’ll be doing the financial part of the presentation towards the end of the call. And the voice you hear today is Barry Sloane, President CEO and Founder of Newtek business services Corp.

We have many new people that are attending today’s call. Just a little bit of background. Newtek was founded in 1998 [indiscernible] in a New York City apartment, 120 West 18th Street apartment 4B. We reverse merger into a publicly traded company in September of 2000.

I say that because as I do a little bit of counting on my fingers and toes, we’ve probably done about 88 to 89 of these quarterly earnings reports and conference calls. As they say, not our first rodeo. We’ve been through up markets, down markets, up credit cycles, down credit cycles, up rates, down rates. We’ve seen it all and you’ve got a very experienced management team and Board that has been able to manage through all these turbulent times and turbulent waters.

We also like to welcome the analyst community that has followed us, KBW, Raymond James, Ladenburg Thalmann and Compass Point. We appreciate the work that you do in our company, and the reports that you put out. For those of you looking to follow along on the conference call, the presentation is located on our Web site, newtekone.com, newtekone.com in the Investor Relations section. You’ll be able to follow along with the PowerPoint, or you can go to the webcast and the PowerPoint is available there as well.

We think that today’s call will help demonstrate that we’ve had through the first 9 months of this year tremendous operating performance. We’re very excited about telling our story. And obviously we’re seeing very turbulent times in the capital market. And there’s somewhat of a disconnect, we think between capital markets and what’s actually going on within the company. We hope to clear up some of that and depict a very strong, 9 months recent quarter and operating history of the company.

I’d like to roll forward to Slide #2. Obviously, for those that have been following the company, many of you are aware we’re going through a potential and likely transformation to acquire National Bank of New York City and to become a publicly traded bank holding company. On August 2, we entered into a stock purchase agreement to acquire National Bank of New York City for approximately 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of book value.

We’re excited about that potential acquisition that is subject to government regulatory approval from the Federal Reserve to approve us to the bank holding company and the OCC to approve the acquisition of the bank. We’ve been working on that for over a year and believe we’re very, very close.

On June 1, at a special meeting of the shareholders where the company issued a proxy previously. We got 89{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of the votes cast at that special meeting in favor of withdrawing our election as a business development company and giving the Board the authorization to withdraw that election, which potentially would free the way for us to acquire the bank and then use leverage to grow the bank and our business going forward.

As described in the May 2 proxy that we put out, the rationale for us, transforming Newtek Business Service Corp., potentially from the BDC into a bank holding company is laid out very well in the proxy. But it’s important to restate the rationale. Way back when we announced the deal, and obviously the decision to potentially pursue the bank and transform the company was made prior to that. We did think that rates might rise. We did think that quality spreads might rise. We also believe that as a growth company, the better financial structure to be in would be a bank holding company, owning a bank.

But I want to make it very clear, as you’ll see in our presentation, not in the traditional way that most of the 9,000 financial institutions exist today. I say that credit unions, banks et cetera. We will be positioned as a bank of the future, a technology enabled bank and a bank that offers real value to its clients which you’ll see through our discussion of our technology The Newtek Advantage, and many of the assets that we talked about in this particular presentation.

So when you look at the highlights of the proxy statement: number one, BDCs are limited to leverage. It can’t grow more than 2 to 1. And typically, most BDCs kind of hover between 1 to 1 and 1 and 1.5 to 1. Number two, that cap basically means if you’re growing, which we have historically grown, look at our dividend earnings payout over the course of our BDC life in 8 years. You could see it grew tremendously, particularly from 2014, 2015, when we became a BDC to last year, tremendous growth in earnings and dividends.

You always have to continue to sell shares of stock. We believe that we’ll be able to use the bank’s balance sheet, and the appropriate leverage risk per reward in a banking structure to take advantage of the fact that we will not have to dilute shareholders as much and also we’ll be able to use more cost effective debt through core deposits versus expensive BDC debt.

We view that as the low hanging transform — transformative fruit in the transaction. Also, importantly, leveraging the company’s patented technologies, NewTracker, the Dashboard, The Newtek Advantage, some patents that are existing, some that have patents that are applied and patents pending, we are very, very excited about this opportunity. And we’ll be discussing it throughout the presentation.

On Slide #3, and we talk about unlocking the value of our homegrown technology, once again, addressing the history of the company. We’ve been in business for over two decades. And we’ve grown our business without the use of brokers, branches, bankers, or BDOs. We use technology to acquire clients, we use strategic alliance relationships, we’ve created The Newtek Advantage, which will be a dashboard for business clients, which we’ll talk a lot about today.

And we look at organizations like Live Oak who we applaud, and things that they’ve done with nCino. And we believe that we can follow in their footsteps and unlock the technology that we’ve created much better in being a bank holding company, owning a bank, and also spinning out some of that technology and offering it to other players in the space than just being in our current position as a BDC.

We believe that the technologies that we have, the ability to unlock further shareholder value, which is not currently apparent in our market to our investor base, as well as The Newtek Advantage is really going to give our clients a very important asset and a major advantage to doing business with us versus doing business with traditional banking relationships.

On Slide #4, we talk about The Newtek Difference. It’s really important to be different and be different good. Obviously, that is our goal. That’s our aim, as we’ve demonstrated over 20 plus years in business. We believe we’re a differentiator, we believe we’re a disrupter. And what is that Newtek Difference? We’re going to wind up giving our clients personal banking relationships, and we’ll talk about that.

Analytics in The Newtek Advantage, software and transactional capabilities that other banks simply do not have. A snapshot or screenshot of the dashboard is on Slide #5. We refer to this as The Newtek Advantage. When you look down one side of the page of the screenshot, those are the relationships. You will get upon opening up an account and licensed insurance agents that you can click on, get them on camera, a deposit specialist click on them, get them on camera, a lending specialist click on it getting on camera, a payroll health and benefits specialist, click on get on camera.

A technology solution specialist what does that mean? Whether it’s managing their IT remotely, disaster recovery, whatever it might be in the technological realm, we can help a customer with that. Merchant accounts or payment processing, they’ll get a specialist to help them take these images discover American Express or ACH, they will have the five to six relationships with the Newtek Bank that they simply do not with the other competitors in the marketplace. If they’re lucky, they may know a banker somewhere. And at the end of the day, the bankers got to bring in all these other resources. And in most cases, the resources are not present in the bank. If in fact, the bank does offer payroll, workmen’s comp, a payment processing solution, whatever it might be, the dashboard will be a very important growth mechanism and vehicle to provide a better solution and asset to our business clients.

Slide #6 and further discussions about the Newtek Advantage. We talk about giving our business client a management asset. We believe it’s unique and not that easy to replicate because we’ve been in all these businesses for over 10 plus years. That’s payroll health and benefits. This is a licensed insurance agency, tech solutions, company, payment processor, lending et cetera. These are businesses that we have people, process and software that exists that are all getting pushed up into one common interface, The Newtek Advantage, which will be integrated into a core.

We are very, very excited about the opportunity to push the Advantage out in the market to give business clients what they really want. Multiple relationships with an organization with real live human beings. It’s not just a piece of software. And potentially we do think that our clients want to have their deposits, their payroll and their payments integrated into an accounting shield. That is something that is out there in the future subject to regulatory approval. And we’ll be pushing that to get that in place.

On Slide #7, the big question I’m asked about 15 times a day, what’s the status of regulatory approvals and timing? That’s the million dollar question. It’s actually more than a million dollars, but that is the big question. So we think the acquisition is pending approvals of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the acquisition of the bank, and the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve as well as the Small Business Administration approving our capital plan, which historically they’ve done, and all the entities that we’ve been in.

We anticipate remaining our status as a BDC through December 31, and that obviously is up to the Board of Newtek, a obviously receiving regulatory approval to transform into a bank holding company owning a bank, and be electing that rich status. But we — our best guess is that status, probably we will be maintained through December 31, 2022. And obviously, the final decision, and the timing of the company’s discontinuous from regulation as a BDC, and the withdrawal of our election as a BDC. And the risk status will be determined by the Board of Directors as the authority and authorization granted by the shareholders.

Slide #8 eight. This is an important slide for me. And I wanted to note that the efforts of our staff in operating our businesses and fully servicing our clients with all their needs, while simultaneously preparing for the openings of Newtek Bank and getting regulatory approval, no small task. I want to point out because people have said to me, gee, you don’t know what it’s like being a bank. You don’t know what the regulation is like, you don’t have enough people to do this, who you’re going to hire? Well, we’re ready.

We’ve been positioned, and we brought people in that have helped Newtek as a BDC throughout the course of the year, and are positioned and ready to go when we’re ready to open up the bank. John McCaffery, who’s joining me on this call was one of those people who will be Chief Financial Officer of the bank, subject to regulatory approval. John has been with our organization, I believe around 6 months.

Nick Young has been with our organization as Chief Risk Officer, the BDC for over a year. Subject to approval, Nick will become the President and Chief Operating Officer of the Newtek Bank. Kelvin Lui has been with us, I believe, around 9 months. Kelvin is Chief Digital Officer, and has helped us with our technology solutions.

John Vivona. John joined us about 3 months ago as Chief Compliance Officer. [Indiscernible], who recently joined us in the last couple of weeks as SVP of Loan Administration. So these are five individuals just to give you an idea that have already been added to the payroll. Obviously, those are headwinds on our numbers this year, but preparing us for growing next year.

In addition to the fact, the legal expenses, the accounting expenses, the advisory expenses, these have all been somewhat of a drag on our dollar performance, but positioning us for the future. A tremendous investment that we are very confident will bear real good fruit for our shareholders and organizations going forward in the future.

We’ll also talk about in this call, the lack of $50 million of fee income from PPP in 2022 versus 2021 comparison, as well as a change currently for the first 9 months of this year for gain on sale margins to come in about three points less than they were in 2022. When you add all these things up, it’s pretty incredible. It’s almost $2.50 to $2.70 of earnings that existed in 2022. That didn’t exist this year. Yet, we still hope and intend to finally distribute and dividend out an expected $2.75 with the forecast for the fourth quarter at $0.70

I just want to note, this company has had a real, real strong year. I am very, very thankful to the associates, to the Board for everything that you’ve done during the course of this particular calendar year in the first 9 months as we report here today.

Slide #9, we put out a press release recently. I think there’s some more language in the press release that will be helpful for people to go back and take a look at. The rebranding of Newtek Business Service Corp. to NewtekOne. Renaming the public company NewtekOne really important.

We’re the one company for all your business needs. We’re the one company that makes you successful. We’re the one company that can help position you with analytics, with relationships and with transactional capability that will make your business better. It’s all about being number one.

We’ve had a almost three decade old philosophy that was developed way back when actually prior to the company being formed in 1998, where we recognized that providing a single set of branded and financial solutions to address the needs of independent business owners in the United States was very useful. We believe we can deliver the solutions that business owners need today.

So we’re excited about the rebranding of NewtekOne. People have said, why haven’t you done this before? When you think about businesses, their relationship with their bank, it’s extremely important. It’s direct, it’s a relationship, they typically go to 3x, 4x or 5x a week, 20x a month. And launching the Advantage at the same time is the right time to really unleash the power of what we’ve done and developed over the course of 20 years. We’re very, very excited about that.

Subject to approval, we hope to have a call similar to one we have today to talk about the actual technology of Newtek Advantage and share it even prior to the opening of the bank, prior to the opening of the bank, Newtek Advantage 1.0 will be unveiled and our clients will be able to have access to that. So we’re very, very excited about that.

We’ll be redefining — redesigning our corporate Web site at newtekone.com. So stay tuned for that. Once again, this rebranding strategy, real important, very targeted to independent business owners at the SBA. By its records indicates there’s 30 million of them in the United States.

Moving forward to Slide #10 and focusing on the third quarter — third quarter financial highlights. Record funding for Q3 7(a) loans, $223 million, which represents a 36{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} increase over $163 million a year prior. Also in units, very important. We’re doing more units with lower loan balances overall.

Newtek Small Business Finances funded 355 million of units, a record again up from 219 for the same period last year. Same record fundings over 9 months, $586 million versus $362 million. From January 1 to October 31, funds at a record $650 million. Because of that trend and funding track record, we bumped our guidance up to $775 million through the end of this particular calendar year. We funded $64 million of loans during October. That first month is always important.

Also important to note, that even though we have increased our fundings, we’ve done it without reducing the credit quality of our borrowers. We’ve actually tightened our credit standards. The weighted average FICO score in NSBF’s recent securitization was 725 on its guarantors, versus a weighted average FICO score on the portfolio at 12/31/2021 of 704. Once again, we talked about our premium gain on sale for the quarter, 9.4{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} slightly up from the prior quarter, sequentially in September — in the second quarter of 2022.

So we go to Slide #11. Obviously, we believe our growth is based upon technology. We have a frictionless way to acquire loan opportunities, our borrowers love it. They don’t have to chase down bankers, brokers or BDOs. They put a referral in, they get a fact finder, it comes back almost depending on how quickly information passes back and forth, can come back within a half an hour or an hour. If they come back with the right answers, we immediately [technical difficulty] loan appointment when they’re available. Not when we’re available, when they’re available.

We don’t tell them we’re showing up on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday in the middle of their workday, we give them a calendar, and they’ve got the full gamut of calendar to pick to get a real live person on a camera to help them assemble their loan with our File Vault. No emails with PDFs attached, secured File Vault, it works really well, a frictionless way to get those best credits in real quick. We’re getting 1,000 to 1,500 referrals a day. That’s the big funnel. It’s important to note, those referrals could be for 7(a), 504, non-conforming and in the future subject to regulatory approval. When and if and hopefully it’s when most likely we believe [indiscernible] on a bank, conforming C&I loans and conforming CRE loans.

It’s important to note, the NewTracker system has been our system over 20 years. It’s been great for us. We have over one — actually its over $2 million — 2 million referrals that we’ve historically gotten, three NewTracker, it’s about 75,000 a quarter. And these are referrals that can basically go into any particular loan product or category.

Also important to note, we’ve made some really good changes through the pandemic, or reporting to Peter Downs who is a 22-year veteran of Newtek. Actually, no, I’m sorry, that was summer of 2003, so approaching 20-year veteranship for Peter Downs, Chief Lending Officer of the company.

Slide #12 talks about our pipeline growth. You can see the numbers real, real exciting. Both for 7(a) and the non-conforming business which we’ll talk about. [Indiscernible] kind of flattish, however, the fundings are setting records, both through October 31, which we’ll talk about and our estimation through the calendar year.

Slide #13 also talks about the full pipeline through October 31 of 17{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}. 14 talks about growth in loan referrals, talks about the units. The referral system, the way to acquire clients cost effectively with alliance relationships like UBS, Morgan Stanley, Raymond James [indiscernible] trade association true value. These are our referral partners that have been with us for long periods of time. We do a great job of servicing them, and helping their clients get loans, get workman’s comp insurance, get a payment processing solution, get an e-commerce solution, get a payroll health and benefits solution. That’s the core nature of our business, broker list, BDO list and branch list.

Slide #15, we talk about dividends. Obviously, a 40s Act company, we must pay out between 90{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} to 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of our earnings in the form of dividends. And we have to do that as a RIC. We cannot retain any earnings. That will be an advantage to us converting into a bank holding company and a bank, less need to constantly sell shares. When stock price is high, it’s better to sell share. When stock price is low, you’d probably rather do it with debt. And you’ll also probably rather do with core deposits than expensive commercial funding as a BDC.

We have forecasted a Q4 2022 cash distribution of $0.70 a share. Important to note that in the event that we get approval, which we hope in the near-term in the quarter, we will look to distribute all of our income for the quarter as well as spillover income. So it’s important to get to that 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} mark. So for those of you that are used to seeing distributions at a lower level than the income with a gap in there, our goal is to get to that 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} mark not be under and potentially be over if we need to, just to make sure that we don’t have an issue with the RIC status.

I think it’s really important to note that, I sometimes take calls from investors and say, gee, your — you’ve distributed earnings, historically out of capital, that hasn’t happened. I don’t know where people get some of their numbers sometimes. But I get a lot of questions. Some of them are quite bizarre, but that’s what I wanted to clear up today. I also want to note that subject to the forecasts being accurate, the dividends and distributions for the full calendar year paid in cash would be estimated to be $2.75.

Slide #16. Once again, focusing on the third quarter financial highlights. Total investment income $23.6 million versus $12.4 million in the quarter year prior, 90{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} increase. Net investment income penny a share. That’s an increase of a loss of $0.30, or 103{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} increase. Adjusted NII $15 million versus $12.3 million, also an increase a little higher debt to equity ratio when you get the broker receivable out, as it should clear within a week to 10 days. That number gets knocked down to 1.26.

Total investment portfolio increased. NAV down a little bit, $16.04, not really alarming considering the cost of capital increases that we’ve experienced in Q3. I think it’s important to note for comparisons versus the consensus. These are the numbers that we have based upon an RB — KBW report from [indiscernible], Raymond James report from [indiscernible] Compass report from A-11.

Adjusted NII, KBW [indiscernible] report $0.54 for the quarter. Raymond James $0.65, Compass $0.57. As I calculate that that average is $0.58. To me, that’s a B. NII negative a penny KBW, negative a penny Raymond James, negative 0.13 Compass Point. We average that up as negative point 0.05 also B. That’s my calculation based upon those reports.

Slide #17. Financial highlights 9 months ended September 30. These were all fairly ugly comparisons. I think the important issue here relative to the ugly comparisons is the $50 million of fee income from PPP. PPP was a tremendous opportunity and benefit.

People could argue whether or not this was a useful tool for government spending, that’s not my job, our job is to do our job, participate in the licensing, continue the mission as an SBA letter, which was to put this money out the businesses, which 65{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of the funds needed to go to employees for payroll in order to get loan forgiveness. And we did that. We did that to about the tune of $2 billion with 26,000 customers.

However, that income has to be shifted back to our core business. So $50 million of income, if you take that out of the equation, at the current share count, that’s about two bucks a share. The other thing I want to point out, which we’ll do in pricing shortly, is the gain on sale margin of three points. So I’ll try to draw the comparisons.

I think the important point to note is, we have made a tremendous change over in 2022. Preparing to acquire a bank, to pay to become a bank holding company, getting staff in place, getting software in place, potentially for a bank opening, repositioning the company to get back to its core operating business of 7(a), 504, non-conforming lending. Getting those lending agreements back in place as well as having this tremendous headwind of no PPP fee income and a three point differentiator on if you round it to 800 million, there’ll be 600 million of gain on sale, that’s almost $18 million of profits, or about $0.72 a share.

Major difference, and this is what I was talking about at the beginning of the conversation. We’re very excited about how our company has performed in this calendar year. We’re very well-positioned for the future. And eventually, growth stocks are people with an imagination that like to buy low and sell high might look at Newtek as an opportunity. But obviously, that choice will be up to the people listening on the quality investment community.

Slide 18 is a common slide we have in the pro forma debt to equity reconciliation. Slide #19 also a common slide. Please note that the average loan size of the uninsured loan participations on our balance sheet keeps declining, $150,000. We like small loans, we like diversification. Important to note, most of those loans are sitting in non-recourse securitizations, and Newtek Small Business Finance where they’re sitting in our Capital One line.

We’re going to Slide #20. This is what I was referring to on the net premium trends. So this slide goes back to 2018. But it really look for sort of an equilibrium, probably over the course of 10 years. The equilibrium price on the Prime plus floaters is somewhere between 110.5 and maybe 112. Maybe it averages, 110.5, 111, maybe a little shade above that. But obviously for the first 9 months of this year, we’ve been averaging 10.02, last year 13.05 and three points.

On an $800 million a year and I’m rounding up from $75 million guidance, that $600 million of government-guarantees three points, that’s $80 million of pre-tax profit. It’s almost $0.70 a share. Well, that has to be made up somewhere. So we’re very proud of the performance that we’ve had.

In addition, on Slide #21, another headwind that we’ve had is the fact that Prime has been lagging the treasury market. And it’s been lagging short-term rates as well, which we’ve been basically been financing historically over LIBOR. So our NSBF net interest trend even though the gross interest keeps growing as rates rise, which we’re happy about, but our cost of funds, which is adjusting monthly is hitting us where the quarterly adjusts on the loans are lagging. Next year will be the year for catch up.

And I think it’s important to note as we talked about in our press release, and in parts of this discussion, we’re looking at probably in the first quarter of next year, our portfolio having a coupon of 10{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} to 10.5{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}. If you go to bank rate, which is typically where the higher cost of bank deposit money is going to, you’re looking at 3.5{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, 3.25{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, 3{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, 4{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, that’s a pretty good NIM, particularly given that 75{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of the loans in the 7(a) business have a big premium for gain on sale. We like our business. We like our model. We’ve been in this for over 20 years. We manage it well. The trend should bode well for us in 2023.

2022, I get asked this question a lot. How do you protect yourself in the current environment? Meaning rates rising and there’s some level of credit deterioration. We basically acknowledged that we’ve been tightening our underwriting criteria as we anticipated that the Goldilocks scenario of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy with some point come to an end. So how do you combat that? Higher FICO and SBSS scores. Two, underwriting with stress tests and higher levels of interest rate starting points.

Loans that you’re putting on the books today are being stressed of 2{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} 3{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} at the current levels of rates. The newer loans, frankly, in these climates tend to be better performing loans than the older loans. I think it’s important to note, when we make these loans, we want to make sure that the business has got a very substantial amount of excess liquidity in the event that historic and the future projections are missed.

It’s important to note SBA loans are loans that are made to businesses. It’s a business loan. If they see an ILO and if the business cannot show that it can make payments and service to debt, either on historic performance, or projections, that loan does not get made. So we look to lend to businesses that can liquidate collateral, have unencumbered borrowing power to survive unknown circumstances, things that just don’t work out as well as they had planned so they can get through the tough economic time and climate. Like I said, we’ve been doing this for 20 years, up cycles, down cycles, up credit, down credit, up rates, down rates, not our first rodeo.

Slide #23. You could see our currency rate on our accrual portfolio still remains very high. I have to say we don’t expect it to remain this high. I said that in the last quarter, you’re going to start to see some deterioration here as rates and inflation creeps into it. We do think we’ll have higher charge-offs that we’ve experienced over the last 2 years, that’s clearly factored into our forecasts. We’ve seen this before, we do not believe this is ’08, ’09.

We think it is a lesser issue with respect to that. Our clients still have a reasonable amount of liquidity, and the economy is still on a pretty good footing. But once again, we just want to be careful that we have a very good feel for these markets. We’ve been in them for over two decades. We know how this works. It’s not our first rodeo. We have very experienced people making these decisions.

Slide #24 and 25 are illustrations that we’ve existed for those 88 conference calls, and really demonstrate the economics of the 7(a) loan. Slide #27, the SBA 504 loan program. Important to note, through October 31, we closed $101 million of SBA 504 loans, a record. We’re forecasting $150 million of loans closings for the full year, that would also be a record.

We have plenty of credit availability on our lines as we sit here today to be able to grow this business. We liked the 504 business quite a bit. It’s a loan that’s made for most people that are familiar with it. It’s a 90{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} LTV with a 40{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} second taken out by government debentures, so we’re left with a 50{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} LTV against commercial real estate first, and [indiscernible] personal guarantees and good positive debt service coverage ratios.

On Slide #28. Newtek Business Lending is the entity that originates the 504 loans and the NCL loans. So these are the non-7(a) loans. Historically, we don’t really report this portfolio, because they’re done out of control portfolio companies. However, we thought it was important to demonstrate to the market at a $388 million loans that have originated since 2017 and $132.5 that originated since 2019. We’ve not experienced any defaults or charge-offs to date. And that’s just a $500 million worth of loans, no defaults, no charge-offs. We’re very proud of our portfolio performance in this particular category.

Slide #29 depicts what a 504 loan looks like. Slide #30 talks about the return on equity in this business, which is very high as well as the 7(a) business which is why as a bank, holding company owning a bank, we believe we can generate really high ROAAs and really high ROTCEs. We’re excited about how we would look as a bank.

For those of you that are familiar with our company, on the Investor Relations section, there’s an old illustration I’ll point out, it’ll have to get updated. But it’s all based on old data of where we think the bank might look at that point in time for ROAA and ROTCE high numbers, go take a look at that.

Slide #31. Talking about a non-conforming conventional lending program. Well, we’ve been in the business since 2019. We’re in this business because very accretive. We get tremendous operating leverage out of being able to do loans that don’t fit the SBA box. So when we use the term non-conforming, we’re referring to it non-conforming to a 7(a) or a 504 or government programs.

So we did a securitization in January. $81 million worth of loans. It was 16 units, rated by DBRS. They’re in a trust, you can take a look at how that portfolio is performing. No defaults, no delinquencies, it’s doing really, really well. And this was our first example of a real good exit and a financing and a good ROA.

Slide #32. We talked about expanding this program. I want to note that we’ve made some tremendous headway in this calendar year in a tough market. Obviously, not that easy to attract capital. Things are moving along quite quickly. But we have a transaction with a joint venture partner. Joint venture is funded by a $15 billion asset management company to provide up to $100 million of equity capital. We will match that equity capital. We have and we’re prepared to close on $150 million leveraged facility from a well-known investment bank. We believe that we can grow that facility to greater numbers as well.

And we do believe as we move forward to Slide #33, and the rationale for growing this non-conforming conventional loan business, which will be done at the BDC level, through controlled portfolio companies or in a bank holding company out of the bank. We are looking to originate about $600 million of these loans in 2023, a $1 billion in 2024. Once the [indiscernible] expectation of the funded through joint ventures help the bank holding company. This will give us additional origination fees, additional servicing income, the ability to asset liability, match the loans while they’re in the credit warehouse facility through hedging that we’ve done historically, as well as once they go into securitization totally match funding.

So Slide #34, we continue to talk about the securitization that we did on January 28 2022. Slide #35, we go to another one of our successful controlled portfolio companies that was established in 2002, our merchant processing business. We generated EBITDA of a little over $14 million, I think that was about $14.5 million of all of our payments business last year. But that’s a nice growth this year, up to $16 million of EBITDA.

We have a very reasonable multiple on that business. And that’s an important part of our ecosystem and being able to offer value to our customers to help them move money, bill, invoice, use POS systems and all state-of-the-art e-commerce to be able to take payments, and use the payment processing system. Very important function of a bank.

Slide #36, Newtek Technology Solutions in Phoenix-based cloud computing business. We’re forecasting $4 million of EBITDA. Between that and the NMS business, about $20 million of EBITDA. Both businesses will be held up at the bank holding company.

Slide #37. Many people aren’t aware of the fact that we own 60{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, of an organization that provides a POS to our customers that can be white-labeled for our alliance partners. And we’re really excited about the growth and the opportunity in competing against [indiscernible], Square and others to be able to provide this attractive software.

Slide #38. Two other important portfolio companies that we believe really experienced tremendous growth based upon their positioning in The Newtek Advantage. Newtek Payroll Benefits Solutions and Newtek Insurance agencies. These are businesses that will consolidate in our financials going forward, if in fact, we get regulatory approval become a bank holding company on a bank.

Important to note, everything will consolidate. So all the accounting will change over from 40s Act accounting to 33 Act accounting. We plan on being very transparent. So there’ll be financials on the bank, financials on insurance, financials on payroll, and everyone will be able to do their in depth evaluation.

Going to Slide #39, from an investment summary perspective and some of things where I turn the call over to Nick Leger. Important to note, and I really wanted to emphasize this. We’ve been publicly traded since 2000 and the company was established in 1998. I’m one of the original founders. Important to note, the insiders of Newtek own approximately 6{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of the outstanding shares. So our interests are very much in line with shareholders.

As we’ve talked about, we believe very strongly that the best opportunity for Newtek Business Service Corp. future NewtekOne will be to unlock the value of its technology that’s built over 19 years, which will be much easier to do and display as a bank holding company and offer much greater rewards to its current customer base.

Obviously BDC dividend investors have been rewarded with high dividends during this window of time. But realistically, they’ve had fairly perfect information with respect that we are no longer going to be distributing 90{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} or 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} of our income out. And many of our BDC investors are retail and they want the dividend and really don’t want to hear about anything else. We appreciate that. We understand that. I have to be a shareholder and I haven’t to be a major beneficiary and enjoyed those dividends.

However, the new structure will allow for increased total participation. Number one, BDCs are excluded from the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. I think it’s important to note, we’ve had estimates from researchers that indicate that, there could be about 2 million shares of Newtek buying, just going into the Russell 2000 alone. I wouldn’t rely upon that statement, do your own research. But however, going into the Russell without market cap, cleared a lot of institutional buying.

In addition, institutional investors really have a hard time buying BDCs, because of the AFFE issue. A lot of people don’t know about this, they don’t understand it, they don’t know what it means. Well, I don’t want to get too much into the weeds here. But we’re an internally managed BDC, not externally managed BDC, which is an advantage by the way. So we don’t further our nest as management participants taking fees out of the entity. Our dividends are after those fees.

With that said, because we’re internally managed, it’s the SG&A that hit this number. It makes it very difficult for institutional investors to actually own Newtek or other BDCs. So we do believe that this is going to open up the box to a lot of additional investors to Newtek. We are looking forward to declaring which we have not yet, but we have forecasted a $0.70 cash distribution for the fourth quarter. And obviously, that’s coming up rather quickly, because we’re already in November. So the return on that cash return is pretty high.

So we look at going forward, if we get the regulatory approvals which we hopeful or imminent, but anything can happen. As I said, to many people, this isn’t [indiscernible], close is nothing to get the letter. You never know you there. So once that occurs, we will try to turn around and provide earnings forecasts for 2023 and 2024. We’ve given some idea what that could generally look at by the August 2 Or 3 discussion, if you go to the Investor Relations section. I think the thing is labeled August 4 presentation, when that’s when it’s been put up. But anyway, so look for that August 2, 3 or 4 date, you’ll get a feel. But I think importantly, we put that out, there’ll be some nice guidance for the market. We haven’t been able to do that at this point in time, because we want to know what the final structure is subject to regulatory approval.

We’re also hopeful that our sell-side analysts will transfer coverage for BDC analysts to bank analysts. We don’t have a lot of guidance out there. It’s been very difficult. Also, earnings multiples are depressed for both BDCs and bank stocks currently. And obviously, we talked about gain on sales margins being depressed, and lags in [indiscernible] headwinds.

With that said, I hope we’ve been able to illuminate the quarter and the performance year-to-date, and how excited we are about our future, despite the fact that it’s a tough news channel half there, but we still feel pretty good about it. And we’re very optimistic about our future. I would now like to turn the financial review over to Nick Leger, our Chief Accounting Officer.

Nicholas Leger

Thank you, Barry. Good morning, everyone. You can find a summary of our third quarter 2022 results on Slide #41, as well as the reconciliation of our adjusted net investment income, or adjusted NII on Slide #43 and 44.

For the third quarter 2022, we had a net investment income of $205,000, or $0.01 per share, as compared to a net investment loss of $6.7 million, or $0.30 per share in the third quarter of 2021. That’s 103{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} increase on a per share basis. Please note that income related to the PPP of $269,000 is included in the third quarter 2021 investment income. Adjusted NII, which is defined on Slide #42 was $15 million, or $0.62 per share in the third quarter of 2022 as compared to $12.6 million or $0.56 per share for the third quarter of 2021.

Focusing on third quarter 2022 highlights, we recognized $23.6 million in total investment income, which is a 90.3{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} increase over the third quarter of 2021, total investment income of $12.4 million. The primary driver of the increase in total investment income was primarily due to the $7.2 million of dividends from the portfolio companies in the third quarter of 2022.

In addition, interest income increased by $1.7 million, resulting from a year-over-year increase in the accrual loan portfolio. Other income increased by $1.8 million in the third quarter of 2022 compared to Q3 2021, resulting mainly from a year-over-year increase in SBA 7(a) loan origination volume.

Servicing income increased by 28 — 20.4{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} to $3.6 million in the third quarter of 2022 versus $2.8 million in the same quarter of 2021. Distributions from portfolio companies for the third quarter of 2022 totaled $7.2 million, which included $4.35 million from NMS, $1.65 million from NBL our 504 business, $360,000 from NCL, our conventional joint venture, $720,000 from AMS, and $150,000 from Mobil Money, and that is compared to the third quarter of 2021, where there were no distributions from portfolio companies.

Focusing on expenses. Total expenses for the third quarter of 2022 increased by $4.3 million compared to Q3 2021, mainly driven by higher interest related costs and increase in SBA 7(a) loan referral fees due to higher loan origination volume and loan origination processing costs. Realized gains recognized from the sale of the guaranteed portions of the SBA loan sold during the third quarter of 2022 totaled $19.6 million as compared to $22.4 million during the same quarter in 2021.

In the third quarter of 2022, NSBF sold 321 loans for $172.4 million at an average premium of 9.45{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} as compared to 205 loans sold during the third quarter of 2021 for $148 million at an average premium of 13.04{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}. The decrease in realized gain was attributed to low average premium prices in the secondary market when comparing to the third quarter of 2021. NSBF sold 56.5{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} more units in the third quarter of 2022 as compared to the third quarter of 2021. As I mentioned earlier, income related to the PPP is including investment income, not unrealized gains.

Realized losses on SBA non-affiliate investments for the third quarter of 2022 was $4.9 million, as compared to $3.2 million in the third quarter of 2021. Overall, our operating results for the third quarter of 2022 resulted in a net increase in net assets of $11.4 million, or $0.47 per share. And we ended the quarter with NAV per share of $16.04.

I would now like to turn the call back to Barry.

Barry Sloane

Thank you, Nick. Operator, we’ll open it up for Q&A now.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Scott [indiscernible] from Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst

Thanks very much. Congrats on a great quarter.

Barry Sloane

Thank you, Scott.

Unidentified Analyst

I am wondering if you could give us some color on loan demand. The growth has been clearly outstanding, especially in light of current situations we’re dealing with here. Massive hike — rate hikes, and the questions of the possible recessions next year. And, obviously, we talked about preparing for non-performing loans, which help — was certainly helpful. But I’m very curious in terms of your conversations with current customers or future customers, both in SBA and non-SBA, more conventional bank lending. What kind of appetite are you seeing on the horizon for your loan book? Thanks.

Barry Sloane

Sure. Thank you. I think it’s when people talk about loan demand, they always think about it in the aggregate. And when you think about, like Bank of America, big bank, I mean, they actually — they are almost the market because they’re that big. We have the opportunity, given how we’re set up using technology to pick and choose what we think are the best credits.

So even though the market is softer, number one, you’re able to get much better terms from the borrower. Number two, people that might not have thought about borrowing, now come into the borrowing realm. And those are clients that are typically stronger borrowers. They have more assets. They have more commercial real estate, they have more unencumbered things that they can pledge and have better businesses. So the goal is to continue to be selective, pay attention to the things that we talked about.

But we are fortunate that we’re not struggling to get opportunities. So we’re able to pour through those opportunities and get the best opportunities. In addition, these are times where you’ve got the bank lenders that were tripping over themselves to do loans, a 2.5{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} to 3{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} rates, or 3.5{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, all of a sudden, they’re like, risk off, they don’t want — they don’t really want to put money out there. And I think that in economies that are declining or declining, or not increasing at a faster rate or declining at a slow rate, there’s still really good credits out there. And that’s what we excel in, making sure we pick those best credit.

So plenty of loan demand, plenty of opportunity to make money. So charge-offs may not be 50 basis points. Maybe they’re 75, maybe they go up to 1, maybe they’re a little higher on an annual basis. But when you look at the coupons that we can charge, which is what we’ve experienced over 20 years, and really paying attention and realizing that, in our best guess at this point in time, we are not, ’08, ’09. This is nothing close to ’08, 09.

I mean, unfortunately, the risk has been shifted to the government, or for commercial enterprises and consumers. So commercial enterprises and consumers and their balance sheets unlike ’08, 09 are actually in pretty good shape. It’s the government that’s got all the debt at the Fed level, in potentially budget deficits at the state level. So our customers are actually in pretty good shape from balance sheet prospective. Question is, will consumers continue to spend? There’s still a lot of liquidity out there. So, we feel good about there being enough great credits to make good loans with better terms.

Unidentified Analyst

Great. That’s very helpful. And if you could sort of have your wish list in terms of the loan mix, would you prefer to have the same level of SBA versus non-SBA? And how would you [multiple speakers] going forward?

Barry Sloane

I think that — yes, I think that we’re going to have a real good year. And we’re trying to finish nailing down a few funding commitments, which we think we’ll do here in the next couple of weeks for the non-conforming book, which diversifies us now. When we say non-conforming, those are typically borrowers that want bigger loans, have stronger personal guarantees, have more liquidity than the SBA book.

So we would like to clearly continue to grow as we’ve grown in 7(a), but use the operating leverage that we’ve got existing in the company to put on more 504, more non-conforming, and if we are blessed with the regulatory approval, put on conforming C&I and CRE in the bank. So really have a very diverse portfolio and now you’ve covered almost all angles of the lending spectrum. So you’ve got businesses at different maturation points, that you continue to lend to them, as they get better and better and grow and get bigger.

Unidentified Analyst

That’s terrific. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Jim Collins from Excelsior Capital Partners. Your line is now open.

Jim Collins

Thank you. Good morning, Barry.

Barry Sloane

Good morning, Jim.

Jim Collins

Question on the — question on a little bit of a geeky question, sorry, but on the dividends, so this is Slide 16. So if this transaction — if everything is approved, as planned, essentially, as I understand that you basically have to sort of push all the retained earnings back out. And so my question is …

Barry Sloane

That’s correct.

Jim Collins

… so then that would be as of September 30, correct? Because then those that distribution would have been made by 12/31. So then for your full year ’22 earnings, it wouldn’t be included or am I misunderstanding that process?

Barry Sloane

Let me lay this out and then tell me if I’ve answered the question. The $0.70 forecast that we have made. It’s a forecast, it’s not a declaration yet for a distribution for Q4. It’s an estimate of Q4 earnings plus any spillover to get to the 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} mark through December 31, 2022.

Jim Collins

Okay.

Barry Sloane

So in the event that the Board declares that dividend, and then declares that it’s going to withdraw its election as a BDC, the goal would be to distribute every dollar of income, including anything that’s been retained historically, which does require work and an estimate that the company has been at work and doing, but hasn’t fully wrapped up yet.

Jim Collins

Okay. So that’s …

Barry Sloane

So when and if the derricking [ph] occurs, all that income is paid to the shareholders. So look, you think about it, 2021 was a banner year, and our shareholders participated in that by getting the benefit of the earnings because there’s a BDC, paid all out. But some of it modest amounts were retained from that year and years prior, et cetera, et cetera, by like, that’s kind of the way the market likes it. Don’t give it all out, but give most of it out. And you’ll get between 90{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} and 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}. However, to conclude, you want to pay 100{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} to 101{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} to 102{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} out just to make sure that you don’t miss.

Jim Collins

Exactly. And then that that figure is the one that you would be including in the 10-K, which obviously will take you a few months to follow. I’m just wondering if …

Barry Sloane

Yes.

Jim Collins

… it’s all done by 12/31, then there’s no like catch up, if you want to call it that in 1Q ’23. You really will have it all out.

Barry Sloane

That’s the — that would most likely be the intention, yes.

Jim Collins

Okay, that helps. That clarifies a lot. Thank you very much, Barry.

Barry Sloane

Thank you, Jim. We appreciate [indiscernible].

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Paul Johnson from KBW. Your line is now open.

Paul Johnson

Yes, good morning, guys. I hope you can hear me okay. Thanks for taking my question. Just one quick clarification. I just wanted to let you know my estimate, the $0.63 versus the $0.54 that you mentioned, so I’m not quite sure what if there’s some stale information that you’re looking at, but just wanted to clarify?

Barry Sloane

Do you have an August 8 report, Paul?

Paul Johnson

Yes, I — well, I don’t know, sometime in September, I believe I may have updated the estimates.

Barry Sloane

Okay. Well, we did it off the August 8 report and that’s where we are. But that’s [indiscernible]. But that’s I went over this morning.

Paul Johnson

Got you. Okay. All right. Well, one thing I just kind of wanted to ask on, I mean, as far as the approval rating for the loans in your portfolio, I mean, the tightening standards that you started to make, I guess, for the underwriting practices. I mean, are these systematic changes that you’ve made to the system for everything in terms of the Newtek Tracker System, more, I would say, rigid, sort of discipline changes that you’ve made to the underwriting system at Newtek, or these more of just kind of discretionary manual sort of tightening standards that you’re making across the company.

Barry Sloane

I think your question is, do you use a computer generated algorithm? Or is there individual discretion by human beings at a loan committee level?

Paul Johnson

Yes.

Barry Sloane

The answer would be the latter. So we still believe at this point, that it’s important that we use human credit committees .As a matter of fact, our regulators require that whether that’s the SBA or in the future as a bank, and we believe historically that looking at things at the moment, from a human perspective, does work. And with that said, our FICO scores have improved. Our average loan size has gone down from a diversification perspective, are trying to close a deal when they come in, has quickened based upon our technology. So our data is showing us that the technological things that we’ve put in place are working. But important to note, there is still a human committee that ultimately makes loan decisions whether to approve or not.

Paul Johnson

Got it. I mean, so does that mean, as you’re tightening these standards, I’ve seen a lot of lenders in the market are doing the same thing kind of in this environment. Does that mean you’re also giving up on spread and pricing for the loans that you’re originating? Or they still coming in around what historically originated at the 275 or 300 basis point spread?

Barry Sloane

No, we haven’t cut our rate. And that’s because we don’t use brokers or bankers at auction loans often put us in competition. We offer our customers 10 to 25 year [indiscernible] schedules, no covenants. They must personally guarantee the loan, they must pledge all personal and business assets. That’s our program. It goes into the hopper. We don’t really discuss rate with them. We openly discuss payment and proceeds. And that’s what we went on.

Paul Johnson

Yes, appreciate it. And then, it’s a little bit difficult to know if the small business economy has really feeling a slowdown or not at the moment. I’m just curious how much interaction you do have with borrowers, in terms of information that you get from the projections, potentially, how frequently do you get that sort of information? And are we at the point where companies are reducing expenses, reducing headcount, are these trends that you’re noticing at all for your borrowers?

Barry Sloane

So I think that up until September 30, we really didn’t see much movement. I do believe that we’ve seen changes in October and November, I have to say, part of it is, when you turn on your TV and the midterm elections, how could you be positive? When you turn the TV on and we’re all inundated through all various forms of media, about how bad things are, it definitely turns you negative, and also the economic data of rising rates and inflation and things of that nature. So we do believe that we’ll finally begin to see the slowdown.

We’ve seen a little bit of that in the payment space, but not dramatically. So consumer spending is still pretty strong. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Christmas spending, because a little too early to tell. But we’ve definitely seen October and November is different than September, obviously, with the seasonal adjustments factored in. So we’re starting to see a slowdown as these rate hikes and inflation issues do eat into people’s excess liquidity and savings.

Paul Johnson

Got it. Thanks, guys. That’s great color. We’ll be all watching closely, of course. And my last question was just on the portfolio yield for next quarter. Actually, in the fourth quarter I saw in the press release where you gave some guidance next year for 10{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550}, 10.5{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} yields on the debt, the debt portfolio this coming quarter. I was wondering if you could potentially provide any sort of guidance. I don’t think it should be quite in that 10{ac23b82de22bd478cde2a3afa9e55fd5f696f5668b46466ac4c8be2ee1b69550} range, but any sort of estimation there would be helpful.

Barry Sloane

Well, first of all, I think that the SBA changed its regs. So we will be out at and are currently added Prime plus three, on our loans. So we’re going to pick up another 25 basis points. And it’s really hard to determine what pricing is going to be particularly going into the end of the year, particularly with another December price hike, et cetera, et cetera. So we’re kind of trying to figure out what that gain on sale might be. I think somewhere between 109 and 110.5 might — as a range might be useful, but it’s hard to forecast at this point in time.

Paul Johnson

Got it. I appreciate it. I was actually referring to the yield on your just retained debt portfolio. So [multiple speakers] …

Barry Sloane

Oh, well that in January, I really just point out where your [indiscernible]. But in January, it’s going to be north of 10. But it gets all complicated because whatever’s on the books does not get the 75 basis point rate hike until January 1. So, on that basis, it’s whatever Prime was at the end of September. So I’m going to think you’re probably around 9 in a quarter.

Paul Johnson

Got it. Yes, that’s helpful. Those are all my questions and thanks for having me today.

Barry Sloane

Paul, thanks. I appreciate your help. I realize it’s we haven’t made it that easy with all of this transition and noise. So I appreciate all the work that you’ve done. Thank you.

Operator

And thank you. And I’m showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Barry Sloane for closing remarks.

Barry Sloane

Great. Well, I appreciate everyone attending. We look forward to making some more progress on our transaction. And hopefully that will really give investors a clear view as to what we see as being a really constructive future for Newtek Business Service Corp. and all its stakeholders. So I want to thank everyone for attending, particularly those that joined and ask questions. We appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. Thanks for participating You may now disconnect.